One Year Commemoration of the Ukrainian War: Reports & Perspectives

Exactly 12 months ago today, Russian tanks crossed the Ukrainian border. The one-year anniversary of the event did not go unnoticed. The one-year anniversary has filled hours of time on television and many columns on media pages.

Both the Russian President and the President of the United States gave long speeches on the same subject, although, when viewed from their contents, they were seen talking about very different events.

In his state address, Putin stated that the war in Ukraine was caused by deliberate action by US imperialism. This claim was denied angrily by Western media, who kept repeating the idea that this was a "Putin war" - a war caused by Putin's megalomaniac tendencies, or even madness.

Responding to the Russian President, Joe Biden assured the attendees in Warsaw that NATO was not an aggressor, but a society that was completely innocent and loved peace, consisting of lovers of democracy who have a noble heart and have never threatened anyone.

"We have no problem with Russia," he assured Poland. We are not a threat to them, as a group of boy scouts who come knocking on your door and offer to clean your window. And so on and so on in the same way.

Surely these peaceful scouts are armed with all weapons of mass destruction, and this is said to be purely for self-defense purposes. Because the world, as we know it, is full of evil people who always threaten to overthrow our democratic way of life.

A truly heartwarming speech that will calm the nerves of Polish friends Biden. But before we allow ourselves to be lulled into deep sleep, let's look at the facts calmly and rationally.

Information War

In every war, the ruling class must take all steps necessary to mobilize public opinion to support its actions. Therefore, it is very important to create various arguments that serve to unite the masses to support the war, to convince them, with all kinds of lies and deception, that 'we are the wounded, 'and that' truth and justice are on our side' ( and also God, who strangely always supports all those who fight ).

For this reason, it is always necessary to prove that the war was started by another party. This is not too difficult to do, because if no incident occurs to justify such a claim, then the incident can always be fabricated. And the ruling class has a very large and powerful propaganda machine, which is immediately mobilized for that purpose.

In fact, the problem of who first shoots, who attacks who, and so on is a secondary problem, which does not tell us at all about the true cause and content of the conflict.

All this applies in the current information war, which in the current conflict differs from its predecessor only in terms of the extent of coverage and lies committed. Clearly, the real reason why this war erupted was never mentioned.

"Putin War"

Over the past 12 months, in a boring tone, day after day, the same message has been repeated by our "free press. "This is Putin's war". The leader in the Kremlin was described either as a bloodthirsty tyrant with aspirations to rule the world or a man with an insane mind, who had a delusion of megalomania and needed a psychiatrist. Putin was once called an insane "crazy person", quoting the elegant language of the British defense minister, Ben Wallace.

However, none of these descriptions correspond to reality. Putin was previously described as a cunning Machiavellian, who, departing from the post of KGB, succeeded in briefly appointing himself to be the leader of one of the strongest countries in the world.

Do people really believe that Putin acted carelessly and risked everything? That's not the character at all. There is not the slightest evidence to support the hypothesis that Vladimir Putin is clinically insane. The label would be far more appropriate to be given to several British officials, including Mr. Ben Wallace. However, we will discuss it later.

Does Putin want to restore the Soviet Union?

Putin is also suspected of wanting to restore the Russian Empire, or even the Soviet Union. We can immediately ignore the second variant because it does not have real content. The Soviet Union is what we can call a bureaucratic flawed labor state. Despite the slump he suffered under Stalin's rule, the country still retains many of the most important achievements of the October Revolution, namely the planned economy that is nationalized.

The collapse of the Soviet Union, caused by corruption, fraud, and bureaucratic mismanejemen by the caste of officials who were privatized, caused the planned economic collapse and the abolition of all the achievements of the Soviet Union's labor state.

Instead, what we have in Russia today is a capitalist country where the means of production are owned and controlled by oligarchs who are 100 times more corrupt and rotten than the Stalinist bureaucracy. There are some stupid old Stalinists who live in their dreams, and imagine that Putin is the one who will restore the glory of the Soviet Union. That is mere nonsense. Vladimir Putin was a child born from a counter-revolutionary capitalist regime that emerged from the ruins of the Soviet Union, and he defended the interests of the capitalist class. In the process, he became very rich.

Putin is a reactionary bourgeois Bonapartist, whose policies cannot play a progressive role, both at home and abroad, both in peacetime and in wartime. Any confusion regarding this problem will lead to the most negative results. It is true that Putin once called the collapse of the Soviet Union "the greatest geopolitical disaster in the 20th century". However, he also said: "Anyone who does not regret its destruction has no heart; anyone who wants the Union to restore the Soviet Union back has no brain."

I would not say that those who so diligently spread fairy tales about Putin's secret plan to restore the Soviet Union had no brains. They certainly have enough brains to peddle this unfounded story, which greatly benefits NATO. And, after all, why let facts ruin a good story?

The idea that he wanted to restore the reactionary Tsar Empire was a bit more credible, but also based on the weakest and most stupid assumptions. A cursory reference to Peter the Great is made 'proof' for this theory. This over-theory has been used as a provocation, not only in the Baltic countries and Poland, but also in Finland and Sweden. "Ukraine is only the first step", a former Swedish minister hinted darkly at The Guardian, "I would not be surprised if, in a few years, Estonia and Latvia would follow."

Neutral Sweden and Finland wasted no time in joining NATO. This is really not surprising. The so-called pacifism of the Nordic bourgeoisie is always a hypocritical guise, behind which the most cynical personal interests are stored. It is true that Sweden was a neutral country in the first and second world wars. However, it is equally true that Sweden gained huge profits from selling war commodities to both sides, and became fat from the blood money. Behind the guise of a Scandinavian pacifist we will meet a frustrated imperialist.

The idea that Vladimir Putin's actions were motivated by a large design to restore the Tsar Empire was incompatible with what we know about him. The idea seeks to link itself to delusional historical romanticism that is incompatible with what we know about its psychological profile.

Putin is not a dreamer with a romantic vision of the past or the future, but he is an ambitious professional bureaucrat, with a cold, patient and calculating mindset; a person who has spent his entire adult life patiently climbing the slippery power ladder, step by step.

The Guardian draw the correct conclusions from this nonsense when they write: "Leaving aside the fact that the Russian military has had difficulty achieving little success in Ukraine, attacks on the Baltic states or Poland will bring them into direct conflict with NATO, which is the last thing that Moscow wants ( or West )." (The Guardian, August 22, 2022 )

Russia's stated war objectives are still moderate enough: basically, to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO and neutralizing the regime in Kiev. Can the West accept this? Of course you can! They themselves have continually postponed Ukraine's membership, not only in NATO but also in the European Union.

For years, they have accepted Finland as a neutral country. Why can't Ukraine be in the same position? From the point of view of Ukraine itself, there will be many advantages in maintaining friendly relations with Russia and the West. If Ukraine does not accept it, there must be a reason. And there are very reasonable reasons.

NATO: An aggressive imperialist alliance

NATO is not a peace-loving organization whose purpose is solely to defend Western democratic values. In fact, NATO is an aggressive imperialist alliance that exists exclusively as a cover for US ambitions and its aim to dominate the world in total.

In the 1980s, when the Soviet Union crisis forced him to compromise with US imperialism, the then Soviet leader, Mikhail Gorbachev, only accepted the reunification of Germany - where the Soviet Union had veto power - because he received assurances that NATO would not expand after he withdrew his troops from Eastern Europe.

The leaders of the United States, Britain and Germany gave firm guarantees that Russian security would be respected. Foreign Minister George H. W. Bush, James Baker, assured his Soviet counterpart, Eduard Shevardnadze, that in post-Cold War Europe, NATO would no longer fight - "no longer a military organization, but more like a political organization, [ so that ] does not require independent capabilities". Or so they say.

Baker then promised Shevardnadze "a definite guarantee that NATO jurisdiction or forces will not move eastward". On the same day, in Moscow, he told the Secretary General of the Soviet Union that NATO would not move "an inch eastward".

In fact, he lied. The agreement not to expand NATO only lasted until 1999, when Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary were invited into this alliance. In all, 13 Eastern European countries have been members of NATO since then.

And the enforcers of democracy and the sovereignty of this nation pursue their aggressive goals with enthusiasm and brutality. US imperialism has the most powerful military machine in the world. They use this power to attack and destroy countries that they cannot control.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Americans used the chaos of Yeltsin's years to assert their dominance throughout the world. They intervened in areas that were previously dominated by Russia, which they would never dare to do in Soviet times.

The first intervention they intervened in the Balkans. They deliberately accelerated the Yugoslav divisions. They bombed Serbia and meddled in its internal affairs to form a pro-Western government. This was followed by criminal invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan, and failed interventions in the Syrian civil war, which made them fight with Russia.

Throughout the time, they continued to expand their grip on Eastern Europe, expanding NATO by including former Soviet satellite countries such as Poland and the Baltic countries. Pupus has repeatedly made promises by the West that NATO will not extend "an inch" to the east.

This brought NATO to the borders of the Russian Federation. US imperialism uses various ways to achieve its goals, namely dominating the world.

The argument about national sovereignty, which is now often used to label Russia as an aggressor in the case of Ukraine, is easily ignored in the case of Serbia, Afghanistan and Iraq. They should be an independent sovereign state. However, this was simply ignored by US imperialism, which shamelessly violated their sovereignty and bombed and destroyed it mercilessly.

Russia and the United States

Russia is more than just a regional imperialist power. Its ownership of oil, gas and other raw material reserves is very large; its strong industrial base and military industrial complex; along with its strong army and nuclear weapons, all this gave him global reach which made him clash with US imperialism.

Washington sees Russia as a threat to its global interests, especially in Europe. Old hatred and suspicion of the Soviet Union did not disappear with the collapse of the Soviet Union. Joe Biden is a prime example of the Russophobia generation from the Cold War years.

Washington has a variety of weapons in its counter-revolutionary arsenal. They use their enormous wealth to interfere in the internal affairs of other countries, openly fund and support opposition parties, rig elections, and overthrow a government that is not in accordance with their wishes.

The so-called "color revolution" from 2003 onwards led to regime change in the countries of the former Soviet bloc, thus surrounding Russia with more and more pro-Washington and anti-Russian countries. However, in an effort to pull Georgia into NATO orbit, they have been exhausted. Russia feels humiliated and threatened, and uses military force to return Georgia to its stronghold. The military defeat of the reactionary group in Tbilisi was intended to show America that Russia had flexed its muscles and hit back US and NATO imperialism. This is a warning to America. But America continues its aggressive policy. And the situation reached a tipping point when they tried to pull Ukraine into western orbit.

NATO and Ukraine

Western politicians consider Russia's objections to be paranoid. They described NATO as a purely 'defensive' alliance'. They claim that Russia's decision to fight is "aggression without provocation". Quite the contrary. The placement of NATO members at Russia's doorstep is a very clear act of aggression and the most blatant and insolent provocation. Moscow can never accept it. This fact is already known by America, which has been forewarned about how Russia will respond.

When this issue ( merged Ukraine into NATO) was discussed at the 2008 NATO Summit, Bill Burns, ( now head of the CIA, who was then serving as US ambassador to Moscow ) wrote in a secret cable to the White House: "Ukraine's entry into NATO is the least acceptable thing to the Russian elite ( not just Putin)."

And he added: "In more than two and a half years of my conversations with key Russian players, from people who don't know anything in the dark recesses of the Kremlin to the sharpest liberal critics, I have not found anyone who sees Ukraine in NATO as anything other than a direct challenge to Russian interests ... Russia today will respond."

America has forced Putin into a corner and forced him to react. Putin also responded. In 2014, he annexed Crimea. This happened almost without a fight. This could work because he had the support of the majority of his population, who identified themselves as Russians. This fact has never been mentioned in the Western 'free press.

The cruel anti-Russian policy adopted by reactionary nationalist groups in Kiev also triggered a separatist uprising in the Donbas. Then, Russia intervened when the rebels faced a onslaught from Ukrainian troops. It was the beginning of a war which, in fact, continued, with greater or less intensity, since then.

Joke of the Minsk Agreement

The war in the Donbas, which began in 2014, was almost completely ignored by Western media. However, from then on, Russian-speaking residents in the region were subjected to merciless bombings by the blatantly fascist Azov division.

The total number of deaths in Donbass as of December 31, 2021 is estimated at more than 14,000 people, including civilian casualties. Most of the deaths occurred in the first two years of the war between 2014 and 2015, when major battles took place before the Minsk agreement. All this is returned with silence on the west side.

The Minsk Agreement should be able to manage the Ukraine crisis and avoid escalating conflicts. However, again this agreement is a lie. As shown by The New York Post, Putin felt betrayed by the West: "It turns out no one wants to implement the agreements," he complained. And indeed that is what happened.

The West has no intention of carrying out this decision. Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel has admitted that the Minsk agreement was only a cynical hoax. "The 2014 Minsk Agreement is an effort to give time to Ukraine," he told the weekly Die Zeit. "Ukraine also uses this time to be stronger, as you can see today." Nevertheless, they instead accuse Russia of being a major barrier to peace and stability in Ukraine.

The argument "defending democracy"

President Biden said that his visit to Kiev would "reaffirm our unwavering and unresolved commitment to Ukraine's democracy, sovereignty and territorial integrity". This shows three blatant lies in one sentence. The argument that the West "defends democracy" in Ukraine is lies and hypocrisy. The European Union has long refused Ukraine's entry on the grounds that the country is experiencing what they call a "democratic deficit". The Guardian report it: "The appeal of Ukraine as a model is very limited. The country is very corrupt, there is no rule of law, and oligarchic billionaires hold disproportionate power."

Opposition parties are routinely suppressed and reorganized. The press was muzzled by strict sensors. Right-wing and fascist organizations are openly incorporated into the state apparatus and the armed forces.

The Communist Party has been banned from participating in elections, and Communist symbols were banned after the 2014 EuroMaidan coup. Meanwhile, criticism of Ukrainian nationalist organizations that collaborated with the Nazis during World War II and carried out ethnic cleansing of Jews and Poles, has been banned, because they are considered "freedom fighters".

With the start of the war a year ago, a series of other parties were also banned. Newspapers and TV stations are closed. Censorship and anti-democratic actions not only affected those who opposed Ukraine's reactionary nationalism, but also opponents of bourgeois nationalist Zelensky.

In fact, issues such as democracy, human rights and national sovereignty do not appeal to the least to American imperialists, except as cheap propaganda material. They are always ready to support the bloodiest and repressive regimes, from the cruel Pinochet dictatorship in Chile to the bloodied Saudi regime.

The reason they are interested in extending the war, despite all human suffering, has nothing to do with defending democracy or other moral goals that are heard begin. This is in accordance with the cynical aim of weakening Russia, and thus serving their interests as the dominant world power.

"Politics in other ways"

Clausewitz said that war was only a continuation of politics in other ways. To get a clear picture of the issues involved and how they are carried, we must focus our attention on fundamental processes, and not be disturbed by noisy information wars, or by the inevitable changes on the battlefield.

The most important point is that this is a proxy war between Russia and US imperialism. Russia is not fighting the Ukrainian army, but the NATO army - that is, state troops who are not officially members of the alliance, but are financed, armed, trained and equipped by NATO, which also provides logistical support and important information.

The current war will end when the political goals of key players are met or when one or both parties are exhausted and lose the desire to continue fighting. What are these goals? The purpose of Zelensky's war is no secret. He said he would only be satisfied with the expulsion of Russian troops from all regions of Ukraine - including Crimea.

This point of view has been enthusiastically supported by hardliners in the Western coalition: Poland, Sweden, and the leaders of the Baltic countries - who have their own interests - and, of course, the ignorant sauvinists and instigators in London, who imagine that Britain, even in its current state of economic, political and moral bankruptcy, is still a major world power.

This lady has encouraged Ukraine to continue to fight until the 'final victory'. They want the Ukrainian army to expel Russia, not only from the Donbas but also from Crimea, provoked ( they hoped to ) overthrow Putin and total defeat and destruction of the Russian Federation ( even though they did not often discuss this matter publicly ).

They made a lot of noise, however, no one seriously paid attention to the behavior of politicians in London, Warsaw and Vilnius. As a leader of a second class country that has no real weight in international political balance, they remain second-class actors who will never be able to play more than the small supporting role in this big drama.

It was the US who paid this war bill and dictated everything that happened. And at least the more sane US imperialism strategists know that all this delirium is just nonsense. Under certain conditions, smaller imperialist countries can play a certain role, but in the final analysis, Washington decides. But policy A has faced a serious problem.

Sanctions have failed

Mark Twain once said: "The report about my death is greatly exaggerated". The same applies to various reports in the Western 'free press' about the collapse of the Russian economy.

Sanctions imposed on Russia after invading Ukraine have become a spectacular failure. In fact, the value of Russian exports has grown since the beginning of the war. Although the volume of Russian imports has plummeted due to sanctions, a number of countries ( China, India, Turkey; and also some countries that are part of the European Union, such as Belgium, Spain, and the Netherlands ) has increased their trade with Russia.

In addition, high oil and gas prices have offset Russian revenues lost due to sanctions. India and China have bought more Russian crude, albeit at discounted prices. As such, revenue lost due to sanctions has been compensated by rising prices on world markets.

Vladimir Putin continues to finance his army with the proceeds of oil sales, while the West is faced with the prospect of energy instability in the coming years, with soaring energy bills and increasing public outrage.

Support for war is weakening

The question is: which party will be tired first of this war? It is clear that time does not side with Ukraine, both from a military and political perspective. And in the final analysis, the political problem will be decisive.

Europe has been hit by a serious shortage of gas and electricity, which weakens public support for the war in Ukraine. Warmer than usual weather has alleviated the situation, but the longer sanctions continue the problem will increase.

American support also cannot be considered to last forever. In public, the American ruling class still maintains their unwavering support for Ukraine, but personally, they are not at all sure.

Both parties are not interested in negotiating something meaningful at this time. But that will change. Zelensky's demagogy, which constantly repeats that Ukraine will never give up a shrill of land, is clearly designed to put pressure on NATO and US imperialism; to emphasize that Ukraine will fight to the end, always on condition that the West continues to send large amounts of money and weapons.

Yes, Biden wants to extend the current conflict to weaken Russia. But only within certain limits. And of course they will avoid direct military clashes with Russia. Meanwhile, poll after poll shows that public support in the West for war in Ukraine is slowly declining.

Fatigue to the Ukrainian War

In the first month of the war, Ukraine was willing to negotiate with Russia. Since then, Zelensky has refused negotiations at all. He has said repeatedly that Ukraine is only ready to negotiate with Russia if its troops leave all of Ukraine, including Crimea and the eastern region of the Donbas, which has been de facto controlled by Russia since 2014, and if Russia which has committed war crimes is tried.

Zelensky also stressed that he would not hold negotiations with the current Russian leadership. He even signed a decree stating that Ukraine would only negotiate with a new Russian president who replaced Vladimir Putin.

These bold declarations caused a lot of irritation in Washington. The Washington Post revealed that US officials had warned the Ukrainian government personally that "Ukrainian fatigue" among allies could worsen if Kiev continued not to negotiate with Putin.

Officials have warned that Ukraine's position to reject these negotiations has upset its allies, because they are worried about the economic impact of the protracted war.

In his speeches in Kiev and Warsaw, Biden repeated the mantra that the US would support Ukraine "as long as necessary". However, a number of European allies, not to mention in Africa and Latin America, are increasingly worried about the impact of the war on energy and food prices and supply chains. "Fatigue with the Ukrainian war is a real thing for some of our allies," said a US official.

Of course, America cannot openly admit that they are pressuring Zelensky to negotiate with Russia. Instead, they maintain a strong solidarity with Kiev. But in reality, there is already tension below the surface.

For Ukrainian leaders, accepting negotiations would mean an embarrassing setback after months of war rhetoric about the need for a decisive military victory over Russia to secure Ukraine's long-term security.

A series of successes on the battlefield in 2022, first in the northeastern Kharkiv region and then with the struggle for Kherson, encouraged Zelensky to believe in the possibility of "final victory". However, America has a better understanding of reality and they know very well that time does not necessarily side with Ukraine.

Is Putin in danger of being overthrown?

Western propaganda machines keep repeating the sentence that Putin will soon be overthrown by the Russian people, who are tired of war. However, it is only a mere wishful thinking. This is based on a fundamental misunderstanding. At present, Putin still has a fairly broad support base. Safe position.

There is no significant anti-war movement in Russia at this time, and what is there is precisely led and directed by bourgeois-liberal elements. This is the main weakness. Workers saw the credentials of the liberal bourgeoisie, and immediately turned and cursed.

This war received general support from the majority of the Russian people, especially the workers, although not many were enthusiastic. The continued enforcement of anti-Russian sanctions and propaganda in the West, as well as the fact that NATO and America supply modern weapons to Ukraine, confirms their suspicion that Russia is indeed being surrounded by its enemies.

The only pressure on Putin came, not from the anti-war movement, but from Russian nationalists and other parties who wanted the war to be continued with greater strength and determination. However, if the war drags on for a long time without significant evidence of Russian military success, the situation can change.

A significant symptom is the protest of mothers of soldiers killed in Ukraine. The numbers are still small and are mostly concentrated in eastern republics such as Dagestan, where high unemployment rates make many young people volunteer to become soldiers. If this conflict is prolonged, this number can multiply on a much larger scale, which poses a threat, not only to the survival of the war, but also to the regime itself.

If the number of deaths increases, we might see protests by mothers in Moscow and Petersburg, which Putin cannot ignore and will be difficult to quell. This will clearly mark a change in the whole situation. However, this has not yet materialized.

The aim of the Russian war

The aim of the war declared by the Russian government was to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO, and to "demilitarize and denazify" the country. In addition, from the beginning Putin wanted a neutral or pro-Russian government in Kiev.

Putin was clearly miscalculated at first, and Russia did not have enough power to achieve this goal. Even the task of maintaining their gains in the Donbas proved difficult, a fact clearly demonstrated by the Ukrainian attack in early September last year.

However, failure on the front lines becomes the stimulus needed to adjust their strength. They take steps to mobilize the strength needed to do what is needed. Russia is mobilizing heavily. The sending of 300,000 new Russian troops to the front lines will dramatically change the balance of power.

The argument often repeated by the Western press that Russia lacks ammunition is a lie. Russia has a large and strong arms industry. They have a large stock of weapons and ammunition.

Not Russia, but Ukraine and their imperialist supporters who ran out of ammunition. The US and its allies have sent nearly 50 billion US dollars in aid and equipment to the Ukrainian military in the past year. However, Ukraine uses their supplies much faster than can be replaced.

NATO Secretary Jens Stoltenberg must admit at a recent NATO meeting that both Ukraine and NATO are threatened with running out of ammunition and heavy weapons parts. He said that Western allies needed to fill their own armory while ensuring that Kiev received the weapons needed "to win this war":

"We see no sign that President Putin is preparing for peace," Stoltenberg said. "What we see is just the opposite, he is preparing to intensify the war, launching new attacks.

"This has been a war of attrition and therefore this is also a logistical battle.

"The allies must make great efforts to truly be able to supply ammunition, fuel, spare parts, which are needed."

This confession dismissed all the stupid propaganda that had been repeated for months.

Meanwhile, Russia continues to storm targets throughout Ukraine with artillery, rockets, drone and missiles; destroying military command centers, transportation centers and infrastructure, which will seriously hamper the movement of Ukrainian troops and weapons to the front lines.

World relations

The war in Ukraine cannot be seen isolated from the global situation. The world order with the US as a superpower, which has been exist for the past 30 years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, has now begun to end. US imperialism seeks to assert its role as a dominant world power. However, this effort was put up in resistance. Russia opposes the US-led security order in Europe, while China challenges it in Asia.

China is also getting closer to Russia, because both compete with US imperialism. Recently, China warned Western countries not to "add fuel to the fire" in Ukraine and repeated calls for peace talks ahead of the visit of Beijing's most senior diplomat, Wang Yi, to Moscow.

This statement was interpreted in Washington as a threat that China might supply weapons to Russia. The US issued a stern warning to Beijing that this would have serious consequences. This was then responded to with even more anger by Beijing. Why does America and its allies have the freedom to send large quantities of weapons to Ukraine, but forbid China to send weapons to Russia? A very good question, which we are still waiting for the answer to.

Geopolitical transitions have begun, such as shifting tectonic plates on the surface of the earth. And this will produce an earthquake. From the ruins of the old order, a balance of new forces will eventually emerge. However, this will take time and will not be achieved easily or peacefully. A new period of turbulence and upheaval has begun.

Although world war is not possible under current conditions, there will be many "small" wars and proxy wars like those in Ukraine. This will add volatility in general and add fuel to the fires of world chaos.

United States and Europe

In Europe, the US uses the conflict in Ukraine to achieve its goals, which forces Europe to sever relations with Russia, and thus strengthen the grip of US imperialism in Europe. Previously, the German ruling class, in essence, used its relationship with Russia as a lever to secure at least partial independence from the US. Another major lever is Germany's de facto dominance over the European Union, which is expected to be built as an alternative power block, capable of fulfilling its own interests on the global stage.

Behind the appearance of 'western unity', there is increasing tension between the US and Europe, which has actually been exacerbated by this war. This tension reappears in the recent protectionist US infrastructure bill, which has increasingly pressured EU industry.

US tension with Europe is not new. This tension arose during the Iraq War, and more recently in connection with Iran. French and German leaders always suspected America's close relations with Britain, which they considered to be the American Trojan Horse in the European camp.

France, which has never hidden their ambition to dominate Europe, has traditionally been more vocal in their anti-American rhetoric. Germany, which is the true ruler of Europe, is more cautious, preferring the reality of power over empty boasting.

Americans are not fooled. They see Germany, not France, as their main rival, and Trump in particular does not keep his distrust and dislike of Berlin.

To secure their independence from Washington, German capitalists established close relations with Moscow. This angered German 'allies' across the Atlantic Ocean, but gave Germany a big advantage in the form of cheap and abundant supply of migas.

Losing this supply is a very expensive price to pay to make America happy. Under Angela Merkel, Germany jealously defended its independent role. It takes war in Ukraine to make Germany submit, at least for now.

For now, the US has succeeded in using war to tighten its grip on Europe. However, it is not at all clear how long the patience of Germany and other European countries will last. The contradiction caused by this situation will only become clear when Ukraine's affairs are finished.

What victory?

In the current war, above all, it is a mistake to discuss the victory of Russia or Ukraine. First of all, we must define what victory means.

From the Ukrainian side, the answer is simple: to make Russia lose militarily and force the withdrawal of Russian troops from all occupied territories, including Crimea. However, even though it looks simple, most military experts agree that it is a very impossible goal.

For Russia, everything is simpler. In theory, Putin could claim victory if Russia succeeded in controlling the entire Donbas region and the land bridge to Crimea. However, he certainly wants more, for example, to seize Odesa and the Black Sea coast. This will strangle Ukraine economically, and reduce it to a vasal state. This will be a major blow to NATO and will expose the limit of US power. Of course, America will do everything possible to prevent it. However, it is far from certain that they will succeed.

Biden has just announced more aid for Ukraine. However, this will not be enough to reverse the flow of war, which is now flowing towards Russia. What Washington wants is to continue to supply enough weapons to keep the conflict in Ukraine going, and thus weaken Russia.

Despite all the public courage shows, however, serious military strategists have understood that it is impossible for Ukraine to defeat Russia. General Mark A. Milley is the 20th Chief of Staff of the Joint, the highest military officer in the US. Therefore, his opinion must be taken very seriously when he says it:

"So, in terms of probability, the probability of Ukraine's military victory is defined as kicking Russia out of all of Ukraine, including what they define or what they claim to be Crimea, then this probability in the near future is not high, militarily."

The imperialists continue to play their terrible game. They ignited the fire of war, enough to keep it burning, but without providing Ukraine with the ability needed to win. They don't care if this means the most terrible destruction, misery, death and suffering for many people. However, all things have limits.

Unlike hypocritical imperialists, the working class in the West feels sincere sympathy for the terrible suffering of millions of poor people in Ukraine. They donated money, clothing and food to help the victims of the war. They easily open their homes and share whatever they have with refugees who have no place to live. And this is worth appreciating. However, expressing solidarity with the victims of war is one thing. And support, directly or indirectly, the cynical policy of imperialism, which exploits the misery of millions of men, women and children to deliberately prolong conflict for their own selfish interests, is a completely different thing.

Nuclear war?

One thing that is really new in Putin's recent speech is his announcement of the suspension of Russian participation in negotiations on a nuclear weapons control agreement. He also announced that a new strategic system had been operated ready for combat, and threatened to continue nuclear testing if the US began first.

Putin's gesture that he might consider using nuclear weapons is almost certainly a bluff, but his words immediately triggered alarms in Washington and Brussels. The face of Stoltenberg, a stone-faced Norwegian man who likes to call himself Secretary General of NATO, for once showed little emotion over Putin's statement.

Whatever the American intentions, they do not want to fight directly with the US. A direct confrontation between NATO and Russia, with all its nuclear implications, will be avoided by both parties by all means. America has no intention of letting this war go out of control. It is precisely for this reason that America has several open channels of communication with Russia, to avoid the possibility of uncontrolled events that can cause undesirable developments.

All this will give additional weight to the efforts of people such as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley to pressure Zelensky to start negotiating with Russia. But this will not be accepted by Ukraine. "If there is an opportunity to negotiate, if peace can be achieved, achieve it," Milley said. "Create that moment." But if negotiations never materialize or fail, Milley said that the United States would continue to arm Ukraine, even if direct military victory for both parties seemed increasingly impossible.

"There must be mutual recognition that military victory may not be achieved through military means, and therefore we must turn to other ways," he said. This is a clear warning to Zelensky that US imperialism will not forever support Ukraine. And this is what will ultimately determine the fate of Ukraine, not Biden's rhetoric in Kiev and Warsaw.

In fact, the US will not continue to be willing to bear the costs of this expensive war. There are limit. Washington has always been reluctant to supply Kiev with the sophisticated weapons requested by Zelensky. This was intended to send a signal to Moscow that the US did not want to provide weapons that could escalate the conflict and create the potential for direct military clashes between Russia and NATO. This underlines the danger implied if the war is allowed to continue. There are too many uncontrolled elements, which can cause a kind of downward spiral which can cause a direct war between NATO and Russia.

Such danger was underlined in November 2022, when the world was shocked by the statement of the Polish president that his country had been hit by Russian-made missiles, with western media claiming that Russia was behind it. The lie was immediately exposed when the Pentagon itself revealed that missiles that hit Polish agricultural facilities on a farm near the village of Przewodow, near the border with Ukraine, were fired by Ukrainian troops.

NATO and Poland hastily explained that it was all a "regrettable accident". However, even though the missile was an S-300 anti-air missile with very limited range, which was almost impossible to fire from Russia, Zelensky openly lied and insisted that it was a deliberate attack from Russia. He hopes this can give him a strong lever to demand more weapons and money. And in the best scenario ( from its perspective ), this might encourage NATO to take retaliation against Russia, with interesting consequences. If the incident succeeds in encouraging NATO to act against Russia, this could trigger a series of unstoppable events that might lead to open war. No doubt,Zelensky would love to see NATO enter the war and thus he could save himself.

The big war in Europe in general will be a nightmare for millions of people. But for Zelensky and his group, this is the answer to all their prayers. If this war erupts, America cannot stand by. American troops will be demoted to the field. This is good news from the perspective of the Kiev regime, but not at all from the point of view of the White House and the Pentagon. This is not their scenario.

The prospect of a new Russian attack worried Kiev politicians. This explains the intensification of Zelensky's recent diplomatic attacks: sudden trips to London and Washington, and Biden's melodramatic performances in Kiev and Warsaw. Zelensky is a hopeless person. And people who are desperate will do things that are hopeless. Clearly there are elements in the Ukrainian army and secret service who are looking for reasons to provoke which they hope will eventually drag NATO into direct participation in the war. The incident of missile firing into Polish territory by Ukrainian army units is an example. There are many reasons to believe that new provocations, and even more seriously, are being planned in Kiev at this time.

Yesterday, Russia claimed that Ukraine was preparing to invade Transnistria, Moldova's separatist region supported by Moscow, and promised to give a "response." This is very likely to happen. However, there will be new provocations.

What is next?

Napoleon said, war is the most complicated equation. This is still valid. War is a moving image with many unexpected variants and possible scenarios. The variant which was confidently put forward by Western propaganda machines since the start of the war seemed validated by the success of the Ukrainian attack in September 2022, and then by the withdrawal of Russia from the western part of Kherson. However, we must be aware of the impressionistic conclusions of a limited number of events. The outcome of war is rarely determined by one battle, or even by several battles.

The question is: does this victory, or progress, materially change the balance of power, which can determine the final result? These basic questions still cannot be determined. Different results may occur, depending on how conditions develop in Russia on the one hand, and Ukraine and Western countries on the other.

Russia has built its strength in the east, strengthened its military position in Belarus, and intensified air bombings both against Ukraine's military targets and weakened infrastructure. So far, Ukraine has shown an extraordinary level of resilience. However, until when the morale of civilians and soldiers on the front lines can be maintained is still unclear.

However, one thing is clear. The next Russian attack will not be like a previous attack that failed shamefully. Russia will attack with all the military power they have. And it seems very unlikely that Ukraine, which has been very weak due to huge losses and destruction of their infrastructure, will be able to fight.

However, this does not mean the war will end. To secure total victory, Russia must go further, until they truly weaken the combat capacity of the Ukrainian army. Is this possible? Yes, this is possible. Russia has a sizeable reserve of military power that has not been used, and is not owned by Ukraine. However, this victory will not be easy and will not be achieved quickly.

News of serious defeat on the front lines will have an impact on morale. Ultimately, divisions will occur between the leadership of Kiev, among right-wing nationalists, who want to fight to the end, and more pragmatic elements, who saw that further resistance would only lead to the total destruction of Ukraine and that some kind of negotiation was the only way out.

Whatever the outcome, the status quo will not return in Europe. A new period filled with extreme instability, war, civil war, revolution and counter-revolution was born.